Confidential — Strategic Growth Plan · February 2026 · Bottom-Up Unit Economics

RYSE Inc.
4-Year Growth Strategy
& Financial Outlook

From DTC pioneer to omnichannel smart home leader. A $46M+ net revenue path powered by B2B channel expansion, a new fabricator/OEM channel, disciplined cost leverage, and markets that no competitor has cracked.
RYSE Shopify DTC RYSE Amazon MOTORYSE Window Covering Dealers MOTORYSE CEDIA AURA Value Market SmartLyft Fabricator/OEM
Prepared February 2026
Horizon FY2026 – FY2029
Methodology Bottom-Up Unit Economics
01 — Executive Summary
The Strategic Thesis
RYSE is transitioning from a DTC-first smart blinds company to a true multi-channel platform business. The core insight: B2B channels — window covering dealers, CEDIA integrators, and the emerging SmartLyft fabricator channel — generate 60%+ gross margins with zero ad spend, creating dramatically better unit economics than paid DTC. These channels scale with relationships, not marketing budgets.
FY2029 Net Revenue
$85.6M
▲ 12.5x from FY2026
FY2029 EBITDA
$36.8M
43.0% margin
B2B Revenue Share by 2029
78%
▲ from 14% in 2026
EBITDA Breakeven
Q1 2027
Profitable within 12 months

Bottom-Up Unit Economics

This model is built entirely from the ground up: every dollar of revenue traces to a specific SKU, sold in a specific channel, at a specific price point, with actual per-unit COGS and a monthly promotional calendar. January 2026 actuals anchor all baselines — SmartShade DTC starts at 1,044 units/month, AURA at 400 units/month across DTC and Amazon. Promotional discounts are applied month-by-month (Father's Day, Prime Day, Black Friday, Holiday). The result is a model where every assumption is visible, every projection is traceable, and no growth rate is hidden inside an aggregate line item.

Revenue by Channel — FY2026–FY2029
Bottom-up unit economics model · 6 channels · Anchored to Jan 2026 actuals
02 — Three Brands + One OEM Channel
One Company, Four Revenue Architectures
RYSE operates three consumer-facing brands plus a new B2B fabricator/OEM channel. Each serves a different customer, price point, and distribution pathway — preventing channel conflict while maximizing total addressable market coverage.
RYSE — Premium Consumer

Smart Blinds for Every Home

The flagship consumer brand sold direct-to-consumer via Shopify and Amazon. SmartShade ($199) anchors the line; SmartBlinds ($99) and SmartCurtain ($149) expand the portfolio. Every RYSE unit builds the brand credibility that shortens B2B sales cycles.

Shopify DTC Amazon SmartShade $199 SmartBlinds $99 SmartCurtain $149
$99–$199
Price Range
$13.8M
FY2029 DTC+Amazon
MOTORYSE — Professional B2B

The Professional Channel Brand

Sold primarily through professional B2B channels — window covering dealers and CEDIA custom integrators. Protects dealer margin, prevents channel conflict, and positions RYSE as the professional-grade solution. SmartCurtain is CEDIA-first: architected for professional installation where its $149 price point and track system make the most sense.

Window Covering Dealers CEDIA Integrators SmartShade ~$138 (dealer) SmartCurtain ~$98 (dealer)
$78–$138
Blended Dealer Price
$41.9M
FY2029 Dealer+CEDIA
AURA — Value Market

Accessible Automation at $99

AURA is RYSE's entry-point brand — $99 on Shopify and $119 on Amazon — built on the same motor IP and technology as the full RYSE lineup, packaged for budget-conscious consumers who want smart window automation without the premium price. AURA expands total addressable revenue without cannibalizing the flagship RYSE line.

Shopify DTC $99 Amazon $119 400 Units/Mo Baseline
$99–$119
Retail Price
$5.4M
FY2029 Revenue
SmartLyft — Fabricator OEM

The "Intel Inside" Revenue Stream

RYSE sells SmartLyft motors at $100/unit to window covering fabricators, who pre-install them into finished cordless blinds and sell through dealer networks. Launching January 2027 — driven by U.S. industry-wide shift to cordless window coverings and compatible SmartLyft motor technology. 75% gross margin with zero consumer CAC.

B2B Only $100 Wholesale Jan 2027 Launch 75% Gross Margin
$100
Motor ASP
$24.6M
FY2029 Revenue
03 — Product Pricing Architecture
Every SKU. Every Channel. Every Price Point.
Revenue is modeled at the individual SKU level — not aggregated assumptions. Each product has its own MSRP, channel-specific price (after dealer/CEDIA discount), actual COGS, and promotional discount schedule. The table below shows the full pricing matrix.
Product MSRP (DTC) Amazon Dealer / CEDIA¹ Unit COGS DTC Gross Margin Channel
SmartShade$199$209$140$6070%All channels
SmartBlinds$99$99$80$3070%All channels
SmartCurtain$149$159$100$5066%All channels (CEDIA-first)
SmartLyft$100$2575%OEM fabricators only
AURA SmartShade$99$119$2872%²DTC + Amazon
Remote Control$99$2080%DTC only (10% attach)
SmartButton$49$1080%DTC only (15% attach)
SmartBridge$49$49$50$3039%All channels (attach accessory)

¹ Dealer and CEDIA channels share the same wholesale pricing (standard tier shown). A volume/premium tier offers a $10/unit discount for dealers ordering 20+ units/month (20% of dealers qualify). SmartLyft dealer/CEDIA price shown is the fabricator wholesale price. ² AURA effective margin is lower on Amazon after 15% referral fee and 18% refund rate. DTC margin shown at list price before promotional discounts. Promotional calendar: June (Father's Day −20%), July (Prime Day via ASP), November (BFCM −25%), December (Holiday −15%).

Revenue Mix — FY2026
% of FY2026 net revenue by channel — Shopify + Amazon = 75%
Revenue Mix — FY2029
% of FY2029 net revenue by channel — B2B (Dealers + CEDIA + SmartLyft) = 77%
04 — Channel Overview
Six Revenue Channels. One Platform.
Each channel has distinct economics, timing, and growth mechanics. Understanding how they interact — and in what sequence they scale — is essential to reading the financial model correctly.
🛒

Channel 1: Shopify DTC

The foundation. January 2026 baseline: 1,044 SmartShade units/month. Growing 4%/month in 2026, decelerating to 1.5%/month by 2029. SmartBlinds adds a second SKU in July 2026. DTC profitability improves as B2B brand credibility reduces CAC. Accessories (Remote, Button, SmartBridge) add 10–15% incremental revenue per unit sold.

📦

Channel 2: Amazon

Zero January–March 2026 (delisted due to battery compliance). Relaunches April 2026 with SmartShade + SmartBlinds, scaling through year-end. Amazon commission is modeled at 15% of net revenue. 18% refund rate (vs 8.5% on Shopify). Relaunch is the largest near-term catalyst — capturing search-driven buyers that Shopify alone cannot reach.

🏪

Channel 3: Window Covering Dealers

Pilot March 2026 (5 dealers), launch April. 8 new dealers/month in 2026, scaling to 60/month by 2029. Target: 1,512 active dealers by FY2029. Average 8 units/dealer/month growing to 14. Blended dealer price: ~$138 SmartShade (80% std / 20% premium). Zero ad spend — dealer reps own the customer relationship. Franchise network conversations are the highest-leverage distribution shortcut.

🏠

Channel 4: CEDIA Integrators

Pilot March 2026 (5 integrators), launch April. 5 new integrators/month in 2026, scaling to 40/month by 2029. Target: 969 active integrators by FY2029. Average CEDIA project: 6 SmartShade + 3 SmartCurtain units = $1,458 wholesale/project. SmartBridge included with every project (100% attach). The highest-value channel per partner — a single active integrator generates $14K–$19K annually.

💨

Channel 5: AURA (DTC + Amazon)

January 2026 baseline: 400 units/month across DTC ($99) and Amazon ($119). AURA is RYSE's $99 entry-point brand — built on the same core motor IP — serving budget-conscious consumers who want smart window control without the premium price. Modeled at 8%/month growth in 2026 decelerating to 3%/month by 2029. Current trajectory generates $933K net in FY2026, growing to $5.4M by FY2029.

🔩

Channel 6: SmartLyft Fabricators

New channel launching January 2027. B2B-only OEM model — fabricators buy SmartLyft motors at $100/unit, pre-install them into cordless blinds, sell through dealer networks. U.S. child safety regulations and industry standards increasingly require cordless window coverings — SmartLyft is fully compatible with the cordless blind mechanisms fabricators are already moving toward. Launches with 2 fabricators at 300 units/month each. No retail presence, no CAC, no refunds. 75% gross margin at $100 ASP with $25 COGS.

05 — Revenue Trajectory
From $6.9M to $85.6M in Four Years
Revenue growth is driven by a deliberate channel mix shift — away from ad-dependent DTC toward high-margin, zero-CAC B2B channels. Think of it like transitioning from renting traffic on Google to owning distribution through dealerships that actively sell your product on your behalf.
Channel FY2026 FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 '26→'29 CAGR
Shopify DTC$3.63M$5.54M$7.29M$9.13M+36%
Amazon$1.50M$2.82M$3.71M$4.63M+45%
Window Covering Dealers$0.34M$2.89M$9.83M$23.69M+362%
CEDIA Integrators$0.45M$2.98M$8.53M$18.17M+302%
AURA$0.93M$2.05M$3.60M$5.40M+79%
SmartLyft Fabricators$0$1.26M$7.20M$24.60MN/A²
Total Net Revenue $6.86M$17.54M$40.16M$85.62M +131%
YoY Growth +156%+129%+113%
Gross Margin 58.7%58.2%59.1%60.5%
EBITDA -$1.27M$2.84M$13.37M$36.79M

* All figures are net revenue after refunds, Amazon commission, and channel discounts. Amazon zero Jan–Mar 2026; relaunches April 2026. SmartLyft launches January 2027. Dealer/CEDIA zero Jan–Feb 2026 (March pilot, April launch). ² SmartLyft CAGR not applicable — FY2026 is $0.

06 — Quarter-by-Quarter Revenue
The Ramp, Quarter by Quarter
The quarterly breakdown shows the real cadence — slow in H1 2026 as B2B channels initialize, then accelerating sharply through 2027–2029 as the dealer and CEDIA flywheel compounds. Amazon's April 2026 relaunch is visible as a step-change in H1 2026, while SmartLyft's January 2027 launch drives the dramatic Q1 2027 inflection.
Total Monthly Revenue — 48-Month Trajectory
All six channels combined · Sharp inflection at Q1 2027
B2B Channel Monthly Revenue Build (Dealers + CEDIA)
Window Covering Dealers (green) vs CEDIA Integrators (purple) — both start at $0 in Jan 2026
Quarterly Revenue Summary — All Channels
Net revenue by quarter ($K) — anchored to January 2026 unit actuals
Quarter Shopify Amazon WC Dealers CEDIA AURA SmartLyft Total vs Prior Qtr
FY2026
Q1 2026$747K$0$0$0$160K$0$907K
Q2 2026$810K$420K$45K$61K$201K$0$1,537K+69.5%
Q3 2026$1,046K$608K$114K$151K$253K$0$2,124K+38.2%
Q4 2026$1,031K$521K$183K$242K$319K$0$2,297K+8.2%
FY2026 Total$3,634K$1,499K$343K$455K$933K$0$6,864K
FY2027
Q1 2027$1,264K$649K$401K$418K$398K$180K$3,310K+44.0%
Q2 2027$1,391K$690K$615K$643K$354K$270K$3,964K+19.7%
Q3 2027$1,548K$775K$830K$875K$526K$360K$4,914K+24.0%
Q4 2027$1,337K$704K$1,046K$1,048K$771K$450K$5,357K+9.0%
FY2027 Total$5,541K$2,818K$2,892K$2,984K$2,050K$1,260K$17,545K
FY2028
Q1 2028$1,637K$847K$1,794K$1,450K$735K$1,260K$7,722K+44.1%
Q2 2028$1,894K$916K$2,274K$1,987K$498K$1,620K$9,190K+19.0%
Q3 2028$2,087K$1,023K$2,754K$2,418K$774K$1,980K$11,036K+20.1%
Q4 2028$1,674K$920K$3,007K$2,672K$1,596K$2,340K$12,208K+10.6%
FY2028 Total$7,292K$3,706K$9,829K$8,527K$3,603K$7,200K$40,156K
FY2029
Q1 2029$2,039K$1,068K$5,108K$4,031K$1,242K$4,800K$17,288K+41.6%
Q2 2029$2,284K$1,158K$5,907K$4,614K$1,280K$5,700K$19,943K+15.4%
Q3 2029$2,567K$1,270K$6,582K$5,150K$1,490K$6,600K$23,060K+15.6%
Q4 2029$2,241K$1,137K$6,095K$4,374K$1,387K$7,500K$25,334K+9.8%
FY2029 Total$9,131K$4,633K$23,692K$18,169K$5,399K$24,600K$85,624K
4-Year Cumulative$25.60M$12.66M$36.76M$30.13M$11.98M$33.06M$150.18M

The Inflection Point: Q1 2027

The jump between Q4 2026 ($2.3M) and Q1 2027 ($3.3M) represents a 44% quarter-over-quarter increase — with the real acceleration hitting in Q3/Q4 2027 as SmartLyft compounds. At year-end 2026, 72 active dealers and 45 CEDIA integrators are ordering regularly, Amazon has been live since April building review velocity, and SmartLyft kicks in January 2027 with its first fabricator relationships. This inflection requires B2B infrastructure to be in place by mid-2026 — which is why the March 2026 dealer/CEDIA pilot launch date is non-negotiable.

07 — Six Growth Engines
What Drives Each Dollar of Revenue
Beyond the six revenue channels, six specific growth drivers accelerate and compound the overall trajectory. These are the underlying mechanisms that make channel projections achievable — not assumptions, but active strategies with clear owners and timelines.
🏢

Engine 1: Franchise Network Deals

Landing one franchise HQ deal — Bloomin' Blinds, Gotcha Covered, or Budget Blinds — equals instant distribution across 100–1,300 locations. One corporate conversation outpaces 12 months of individual dealer outreach. The 8 new dealers/month assumption for 2026 is powered primarily by franchise-level conversations — individual dealer cold outreach alone cannot achieve this pace.

🤝

Engine 2: Manufacturer's Rep Network

Commission-based reps in CA, FL, and NY — covering 38% of all U.S. window treatment stores — open doors that cold outreach never will. Zero fixed cost until revenue is proven. Reps carry RYSE alongside complementary non-competing lines and bring warm existing dealer relationships. Phase 2 transition to full-time Dealer Success Managers in proven markets.

🏆

Engine 3: CEDIA Expo & Chapter Events

The CEDIA integrator channel grows through relationship selling at targeted events. One CEDIA Expo booth conversation can become a $14K+ annual partner. Regional chapter presentations reach 20–50 qualified integrators per event — at far lower cost than broad-based marketing. SmartCurtain's $149 MSRP with professional track system differentiates RYSE from commodity competitors at integrator demos.

📱

Engine 4: DTC Brand Halo Effect

Every Shopify sale and Amazon review builds the brand credibility that closes B2B deals faster. A dealer who looks up RYSE online and sees thousands of reviews closes 40% faster. DTC is modeled as profitable at ~62% gross margin — its real multiplier effect is the brand asset that reduces B2B sales cycles and increases conversion rates across dealer and CEDIA channels.

📈

Engine 5: Amazon Relaunch (April 2026)

SmartShade relaunches on Amazon in April 2026 following battery compliance certification. SmartBlinds follows mid-2026 (July) as a new SKU addition. Amazon captures search-driven buyers who would never discover Shopify independently and builds review velocity that supports premium pricing. Amazon is modeled at zero January–March 2026 — so there is no revenue at risk if certification runs slightly late.

🔩

Engine 6: SmartLyft Industry Tailwind

U.S. child safety regulations and broad industry standards are accelerating the shift to cordless window coverings across the country. Fabricators are already transitioning their product lines to cordless mechanisms — and SmartLyft is specifically engineered to be compatible with these cordless blind systems. RYSE doesn't need to change fabricator behavior — it just needs to be the motor of choice as they complete a transition already underway. This is the lowest-risk new channel in the model.

08 — AURA Deep Dive
RYSE's $99 Entry Point — Real Revenue, Real Growth
AURA is RYSE's entry-point brand, built on the same core motor IP and technology that powers the full RYSE lineup — priced at $99 on Shopify and $119 on Amazon to reach a broader segment of budget-conscious consumers. At 400 units/month in January 2026, AURA is already generating ~$45K gross/month with minimal marketing, and growing.

💡 The AURA Opportunity

AURA exists because $199 is the wrong price for millions of smart home buyers who want automation but don't need premium positioning. AURA is powered by the same motor IP and technology that RYSE owns outright — packaged into a $99 product that unlocks a segment of the market the RYSE brand can't efficiently serve. At $99 on Shopify and $119 on Amazon, AURA doesn't compete with RYSE — it captures buyers at a different point on the decision curve, expanding total addressable revenue without cannibalizing the flagship line. Low price point drives strong organic conversion with minimal ad spend.

400
Units/Month (Jan 2026)
$99 / $119
DTC / Amazon Price
$5.4M
FY2029 Revenue
79%
FY2026–29 CAGR

The $99 Price Point

$99 is a psychologically different purchase than $199. It's impulse-buy territory for smart home enthusiasts and a credible entry point for first-time automation buyers. AURA expands RYSE's total addressable market — reaching consumers who would never convert at premium RYSE pricing but who become loyal brand users once they experience the product. The average AURA buyer installs 2–4 units per home.

Two-Channel Economics

AURA now operates on two separate price points: $99 on Shopify DTC and $119 on Amazon. The Amazon channel adds 30% incremental volume to DTC sales. Both channels run with minimal ad spend — the IP moat and low competition mean organic and search placement converts efficiently. COGS of $28 gives AURA strong unit economics across both channels.

Growth Trajectory

AURA's 400 units/month baseline grows at 8%/month in 2026, decelerating to 3%/month by 2029 as the market matures. Growth is driven by the expanding smart home accessories market, word-of-mouth from satisfied buyers, and low CAC due to strong organic search performance at the $99 price point. An AURA V2 program (expanded product line) is tracked separately but not included in the base case.

AURA Revenue Trajectory — Conservative Projection
400 units/month baseline (Jan 2026) · 8% monthly growth 2026, decelerating to 3%/month by 2029

The AURA Thesis in One Sentence

At 400 units/month and $99–$119 across two channels, AURA is generating ~$45K gross/month with minimal marketing — powered by the same motor IP RYSE already owns, at a price point that reaches a fundamentally different buyer. AURA is modeled as a genuine growth engine in its own right: one that compounds without competing with the RYSE premium line for consumer mindshare, or with MOTORYSE for dealer attention. It is additive revenue from a product that costs RYSE little incremental to maintain and grows organically.

09 — Window Covering Dealer Channel
MOTORYSE: Building Geographic Density
The window covering dealer channel is the highest-volume B2B channel in the model — 1,512 active dealers by FY2029. MOTORYSE is sold exclusively through dealers and CEDIA integrators — not available on Shopify or Amazon — because dealers won't carry products their customers can price-check and buy online for less. A dealer-exclusive brand protects their margin, eliminates channel conflict, and gives dealers a product they can confidently present and upsell. The key insight: dealers are already selling window coverings. Adding MOTORYSE is an accessory sale to their existing customer base, not a new product pitch.
Active Dealer Count
March 2026 pilot (5 dealers) → April launch
Dealer Channel Revenue
Zero Jan-Feb 2026 · Pilot March · Full launch April
MetricFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
New Dealers Added/Month8/mo20/mo40/mo60/mo
Active Dealers (Year-End)723127921,512
Avg Units/Dealer/Month8101214
Blended Price to Dealer (SmartShade)~$138~$138~$138~$138
Annual Dealer Channel Revenue$344K$2.89M$9.83M$23.69M
Revenue per Active Dealer (Annual)~$4.8K~$9.3K~$12.4K~$15.7K

The Franchise Network Shortcut

At 8 new dealers per month through cold outreach and manufacturer's reps, reaching 72 year-end dealers by FY2026 is achievable but takes sustained effort. The franchise network shortcut compresses this timeline dramatically. A single corporate agreement with Budget Blinds (1,300+ locations) or Bloomin' Blinds (100+ locations) would instantly add more distribution than 12 months of individual dealer outreach. The 8 dealer/month assumption does not require a franchise deal — but one conversation could 5x the trajectory overnight.

10 — CEDIA Integrator Channel
MOTORYSE CEDIA: The High-Value Multiplier
The CEDIA channel is the highest-revenue-per-partner channel in the model. A single active CEDIA integrator generates $14K–$19K in annual RYSE revenue, compared to $3K–$10K for a window covering dealer. CEDIA integrators serve affluent homeowners and luxury new construction — customers for whom smart automation is expected, not optional. SmartCurtain at $149 MSRP (CEDIA-first) differentiates RYSE from commodity competitors at the integrator level — professional installation context is where SmartCurtain delivers maximum value.
Active CEDIA Integrator Count
March 2026 pilot (5 integrators) → April launch
CEDIA Channel Revenue
High-value channel · $18.17M by FY2029
MetricFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
New Integrators Added/Month5/mo12/mo25/mo40/mo
Active Integrators (Year-End)45189489969
Avg Project: SmartShade Units6666
Avg Project: SmartCurtain Units3333
SmartBridge Attach Rate100%100%100%100%
CEDIA Channel Revenue$455K$2.98M$8.53M$18.17M
Revenue per Active Integrator (Annual)~$10.1K~$15.8K~$17.4K~$18.7K

Why CEDIA Integrators Become Your Best Sales Force

A CEDIA integrator who specifies RYSE in a project doesn't just buy the product — they recommend it to every client who asks about window automation for the next 3–5 years. This creates durable, recurring revenue that doesn't reset: once an integrator is trained and has completed one successful project, they reorder on every qualifying job. The revenue-per-integrator figure grows from $10.8K in 2026 to $18.8K in 2029 not because of price increases, but because experienced integrators specify RYSE on more projects as their confidence and client base grows.

B2B Revenue Comparison — Dealers vs CEDIA
Dealer and CEDIA channels combined · $41.9M by FY2029
11 — SmartLyft: Fabricator/OEM Channel
The "Intel Inside" Revenue Stream
SmartLyft is RYSE's most structurally differentiated revenue channel. Rather than selling to consumers or dealers, RYSE sells SmartLyft motors to window covering fabricators — manufacturers who produce finished cordless blinds and shades. The fabricators install the SmartLyft motor into their branded products, sell through their existing dealer networks, and take ownership of the end-customer relationship. RYSE earns recurring B2B motor revenue at 70% gross margin with zero retail presence, zero consumer CAC, and no refund exposure.
SmartLyft ASP to Fabricators
$100
B2B wholesale price
Unit COGS
$25
75% gross margin
Launch Date
Jan 2027
2 fabricators · 300 u/mo each
FY2029 Revenue
$24.6M
246,000 units shipped

🔩 The Business Model

Fabricators source SmartLyft motors at $100 per unit wholesale. They manufacture finished cordless blind products — roller shades, cellular shades, or roman shades with the SmartLyft motor pre-installed — and sell the finished product to window covering dealers at a markup. RYSE never touches the consumer. The fabricator manages quality, installation, and warranty. RYSE earns a durable B2B component revenue stream.

📜 The Regulatory Catalyst

U.S. child safety regulations and evolving industry standards are driving broad adoption of cordless window coverings across the country. The industry is already moving in this direction — fabricators are transitioning their product lines to cordless mechanisms to meet both regulatory requirements and consumer expectations. SmartLyft is designed to work with the cordless blind mechanisms fabricators are already adopting — meaning RYSE isn't selling a disruption, it's offering the motor that fits the direction the industry is already heading. This makes SmartLyft a natural integration decision, not a product category switch.

📈 The Growth Path

SmartLyft starts with 2 fabricators in January 2027, each purchasing 300 units/month. Growth is driven by adding fabricator relationships, not by consumer demand marketing. By FY2029, the model projects 246,000 annual units shipped across 25 fabricator relationships. Each fabricator relationship represents recurring monthly purchase orders as they receive new dealer orders for cordless products — creating the same compounding dynamic as the dealer and CEDIA channels.

SmartLyft Units Shipped & Revenue — FY2026–FY2029
Launches January 2027 · B2B only · 75% gross margin · No consumer CAC

Why SmartLyft Is Modeled Conservatively — And Why That's the Right Call

SmartLyft's FY2029 projection of $24.6M is driven by fabricator scale, not consumer demand. The channel is real, the regulatory tailwind is genuine, and 70% gross margins mean every unit contributes significantly. But fabricator partnerships require manufacturing qualification, quality assurance, and supply chain integration — these conversations take 60–90 days to close and 30–60 more days to operationalize. Growth is driven purely by adding fabricator relationships — each new fabricator adds 300–1,000 units/month in recurring orders. The model is deliberately bottom-up: 2 fabricators at launch, adding 1 per quarter in 2027 and 2–3 per quarter in 2028–29. Each fabricator relationship represents a predictable, recurring purchase order as dealers order cordless products from them monthly.

MetricFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Launch MonthN/A ($0)January 2027Full yearFull year
Units Shipped (Annual)012,60072,000246,000
ASP to Fabricator$100$100$100$100
Unit COGS$25$25$25
Gross Revenue$0$1.26M$7.20M$24.60M
Gross Profit$0$945K$5.40M$18.45M
Gross Margin %75%75%75%
Fabricators Active (Year-End)051325
12 — Path to Profitability
From -$1.3M to $36.8M EBITDA
RYSE enters 2026 with an investment-year P&L — a planned $1.3M EBITDA deficit driven by front-loaded salaries and marketing as B2B channels initialize. The path to profitability is structural, not speculative: as B2B revenue grows, gross margin blended rate stays above 57%, while operating expenses grow far more slowly than revenue. RYSE crosses the EBITDA breakeven threshold in early Q1 2027 and accelerates sharply through 2028–29 as SmartLyft compounds.
EBITDA & EBITDA Margin — FY2026–FY2029
Red bar = loss · Green bar = profitable · Gold line = EBITDA margin %
P&L ItemFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029
Total Net Revenue$6.86M$17.54M$40.16M$85.62M
Total COGS($2.83M)($7.33M)($16.43M)($33.81M)
Gross Profit$4.03M$10.21M$23.73M$51.81M
Gross Margin %58.7%58.2%59.1%60.5%
Marketing & Ad Spend($2.40M)($4.55M)($6.99M)($9.43M)
Salaries & Benefits($1.70M)($2.30M)($3.00M)($3.80M)
G&A / Other OpEx($1.20M)($1.56M)($1.98M)($2.40M)
EBITDA($1.27M)$2.84M$13.37M$36.79M
EBITDA Margin %-18.5%16.2%33.3%43.0%

FY2026 — Investment Year

Planned -$1.3M EBITDA. This is designed, not accidental. Salaries are front-loaded for the dealer and CEDIA channel buildout. Marketing spend funds the Amazon relaunch (April) and Shopify growth. B2B channels are initialized with March pilot launches. Every dollar of 2026 loss is buying the infrastructure that generates 2027–2029 profitability.

FY2027 — Breakeven & Beyond

EBITDA crosses positive in Q1 2027 and reaches $2.84M for the full year (16.2% margin). The B2B flywheel is compounding — 312 dealers and 189 integrators are ordering regularly. Marketing percentage drops to 25% of revenue as B2B channels require zero ad spend. Revenue nearly 2.6x while salaries grow only 35% — demonstrating the operating leverage embedded in the B2B model.

FY2028–29 — Scaling Profitability

EBITDA grows from $13.37M (33.3%) to $36.79M (43.0%) as revenue scales from $40M to $86M. SmartLyft becomes the single largest contributor by FY2029 at $24.6M. Salaries reach $3.8M — 2.2x the 2026 level, but revenue has grown 12.5x. Every incremental dealer or CEDIA partner adds revenue at near-full gross margin with zero corresponding OpEx increase — pure operating leverage.

13 — Cost Structure & Operating Leverage
Revenue Grows 12.5x. Salaries Grow 2.2x.
The most compelling element of the B2B model is the decoupling of revenue growth from headcount growth. DTC requires people (and ad spend) proportional to revenue. B2B — once dealer relationships are established — generates recurring orders without proportional labor. The result: revenue scales exponentially while the cost structure grows linearly.
Margin Waterfall by Year
Gross Profit → After-Marketing → EBITDA
OpEx as % of Net Revenue
Each cost line declining as revenue scales
Absolute OpEx Growth ($M) — Revenue vs Costs
Stacked cost bars vs revenue line · Spread = EBITDA
Cost LineFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029Note
Marketing (% Revenue)30%25%20%18%Decreasing as B2B share grows (no ad spend)
Salaries & Benefits$1.70M$2.30M$3.00M$3.80M+124% over 4 years vs +1,148% revenue
G&A / Other OpEx5% rev5% rev5% rev5% revFixed % assumption · Legal, accounting, insurance
Total OpEx$3.55M$5.96M$9.07M$14.08M
OpEx as % of Revenue67.5%46.4%35.6%30.3%Operating leverage visible year-over-year
14 — Market Context & Competitive Position
Riding a $10B+ Market Tailwind
The U.S. window coverings industry is entering a multi-year growth cycle driven by housing recovery, remodeling demand, and the secular shift toward smart home automation. RYSE sits at the intersection of the two fastest-growing segments: smart home and specialty retail services.
U.S. Window Treatment Store Sales ($B)
IBISWorld data · Projected recovery 2026–2029
Smart Home & Motorized Shade Penetration
% households with smart home / automated shades

Market Sizing

The U.S. window coverings market is a $10B+ industry, with the specialty/professional segment representing ~$2.6B by 2029 (window treatment stores + custom fabricators). RYSE's $46M FY2029 revenue represents approximately 1.8% of the professional specialty segment — a defensible, achievable market share target for a company with the MOTORYSE brand and dealer channel infrastructure.

Smart Home Tailwind

Smart home penetration in U.S. households has grown from 32% in 2020 to 52% in 2024 and is projected to reach 67% by 2029. Window automation is one of the highest-value smart home upgrades — more visible, more daily-use, and more differentiating than smart thermostats or security cameras. Every new smart home install is a potential RYSE customer.

Competitive Moat

The retrofit smart blind market is RYSE's home territory — the ability to motorize existing blinds without replacing them is the core value proposition. Soma, Zemismart, and Chinese OEM alternatives exist on Amazon but lack the professional channel infrastructure, the CEDIA certification, and the dealer network that RYSE is building. Price competition from China does not threaten B2B channels — dealers and integrators value reliability, warranty, and professional support over price.

15 — Assumptions, Sensitivities & Risks
What the Model Assumes (and What Keeps Us Up at Night)

Core Model Assumptions

Anchored to actuals: January 2026 unit volumes (1,044 DTC SmartShade/month, 400 AURA/month) anchor all projections. Promotional calendar applied: Father's Day (Jun), Prime Day (Jul), BFCM (Nov), Holiday (Dec) discounts reduce ASP in affected months. Conservative B2B timing: Zero dealer/CEDIA revenue January–February 2026; pilot March; launch April. Amazon launches April 2026: Zero Amazon revenue January–March 2026; relaunches April with SmartShade + SmartBlinds. Refund rates from actuals: 8.5% DTC, 18% Amazon, 3% B2B, 5% AURA. Real COGS per SKU: $60 SmartShade, $30 SmartBlinds, $50 SmartCurtain, $25 SmartLyft, $28 AURA.

Sensitivity Analysis — FY2029 EBITDA Impact
How key assumptions affect the FY2029 EBITDA base case of $12.4M

🔴 Highest Risk: B2B Ramp Speed

If dealer and CEDIA adoption runs at 60% of plan — 47 dealers/month instead of 77 by year-end 2026 — FY2029 revenue drops to ~$32M and EBITDA to ~$6M. This is the single largest risk in the model. Mitigation: franchise network conversations must start in Q1 2026, not Q2. Every month of delay in landing a franchise HQ deal compounds through all four years.

🟡 Medium Risk: Amazon Relaunch Timing

A delayed Amazon relaunch past Q3 2026 costs ~$300–400K in 2026 revenue but only ~$1.5M by FY2029 (dealers and CEDIA drive 70% of revenue and don't depend on Amazon). Amazon is modeled as zero January–March 2026 — there's no "optimistic" Amazon assumption baked in. If it launches in April as planned, the upside is all incremental.

🟢 Upside Not Modeled

Three scenarios add material revenue with zero model dependency: (1) A franchise network deal (Budget Blinds, Bloomin' Blinds) could add 100–1,300 locations overnight. (2) A single large SmartLyft fabricator could add $600K–$1.2M/year. (3) AURA V2 with a heavier-duty motor unlocks a materially larger market. Any one of these could add $5–15M to FY2029 revenue. None are in the base case.

16 — Strategic Recommendations
Four Bets to Make Now
The model projects are achievable — but only if four strategic decisions are made and executed in the next 90 days. These are the actions where delay has compounding consequences: every month lost in Q1 2026 is a month of B2B flywheel that never starts.
Bet 01 — Distribution

🎯 Close a Franchise Network Deal by June 2026

Bloomin' Blinds, Gotcha Covered, or Budget Blinds — any one of these at the corporate level equals 100–1,300+ instant distribution points. This is not a sales conversation; it's a partnership conversation. Target: one senior-level meeting per franchise group per month. Pilot program with training support, dedicated dealer portal, and co-marketing at the franchise level. This single bet could 5x the dealer trajectory overnight.

Deadline: June 2026
Bet 02 — Sales Infrastructure

🌎 Build Manufacturer's Rep Network in CA, FL, NY by April 2026

These three states represent 38% of all U.S. window treatment stores. Commission-based reps carry RYSE as one of 5–10 complementary non-competing lines — zero fixed cost. Sources: MANA directory, RepHunter, LinkedIn. Target: 2–3 signed rep agreements per state by April. Transition to full-time Dealer Success Managers in states with 50+ active dealers. This is the operating engine that feeds the 8 new dealers/month assumption.

Deadline: April 2026
Bet 03 — Amazon Channel

📦 Launch Amazon SmartShade + SmartBlinds by April 2026

Battery compliance certification must be complete by end of February to allow for Amazon's listing review process. Target: SmartShade relaunches April 1; SmartBlinds follows within 30 days. Amazon captures search-intent buyers that Shopify cannot reach and builds review velocity that compounds every month. Over $1.5M in Amazon FY2026 revenue is at zero today — it's available to capture as soon as compliance is resolved. Every month of delay is revenue lost, not deferred.

Deadline: April 2026
Bet 04 — OEM Fabricator Channel

🔩 Sign First SmartLyft Fabricators by H2 2026 for January 2027 Launch

Begin fabricator conversations in April–May 2026. Target fabricators in California (highest cordless regulation enforcement) with existing cordless product lines. Qualification process: 30 days. Integration and production testing timeline: 60–90 days. January 2027 launch with 2 signed fabricators at 300 units/month each. The regulatory tailwind makes this a pull sale, not a push sale — fabricators need a cordless motor solution. Start conversations before competitors do.

Contracts by: Q3 2026 · Launch: Jan 2027
17 — Execution Roadmap
The Playbook, Phased
Three distinct phases, each building on the last. Phase 1 is about proving the model works. Phase 2 is about building the infrastructure to scale it. Phase 3 is about harvesting the flywheel that Phases 1 and 2 created.

Phase 1: Prove It (Q1–Q2 2026)

Dealer: Pilot 5 dealers in March, add 8/month through Q2. One franchise conversation in each of Bloomin' Blinds, Gotcha Covered, Budget Blinds. Sign 2 manufacturer's rep agreements per target state (CA, FL, NY).

CEDIA: Pilot 3 integrators in March, add 5/month through Q2. Attend at least one regional CEDIA chapter event.

Amazon: Complete battery compliance by February. April target for SmartShade + SmartBlinds relaunch.

SmartLyft: Begin fabricator conversations in April. Target 2 signed agreements by Q3 2026 for January 2027 launch.

Phase 2: Scale It (H2 2026 – FY2027)

Dealer: Scale to 20 new dealers/month. Transition from manufacturer's reps to Dealer Success Managers in states with 50+ active dealers. Target 317 total dealers by year-end 2027.

CEDIA: Scale to 12 new integrators/month. CEDIA Expo booth in September 2027. Target 192 integrators year-end.

Amazon: Optimize SmartShade listings, scale SmartBlinds. Target 8,273 Amazon units in FY2027.

SmartLyft: Scale from launch (2 fabricators, 300 u/mo each) to 5 fabricators by year-end. Begin commercial conversations.

Phase 3: Harvest It (FY2028–FY2029)

Dealer: Scale to 40–60 new dealers/month. 797–1,517 total active dealers. Full-time DSMs in all major markets. Consider international expansion to Canada.

CEDIA: Scale to 25–40 new integrators/month. 492–972 total integrators. Expand SmartCurtain product line.

Platform: Evaluate enterprise SaaS layer — dealer portal with project management and ordering features that increase switching costs and loyalty.

SmartLyft: Pursue one national fabricator and one commercial/hospitality pilot. AURA V2 motor engineering if R&D confirms feasibility.

MilestoneTarget DateSuccess MetricOwner
Dealer pilot launchMarch 20265 dealers signed, 1st orders placedSales
CEDIA pilot launchMarch 20263 integrators signed, 1st projects submittedSales
Amazon compliance completeApril 2026Battery certification receivedOps
Manufacturer's rep agreements signedApril 20262+ reps per CA, FL, NYSales
First franchise HQ meetingApril 2026Intro call with Budget Blinds or equiv.Founder
SmartLyft fabricator outreach beginsApril 20265 fabricator conversations initiatedSales
Amazon SmartShade relaunchApril 2026Live listings, units flowing by MayOps + Marketing
SmartLyft fabricator contracts signedQ3 20262 fabricators signed, production testedSales
Franchise network deal closedOctober 2026Corporate agreement, 50+ locations activatedFounder
EBITDA breakevenQ1 2027Monthly EBITDA positiveFinance
100 active dealersQ2 2027Dealer portal live, DSM deployed in CASales
CEDIA Expo 2027September 2027Booth presence, 20+ integrator meetingsMarketing